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DLR Aviation

DLR forecasts 3.7 percent annual growth

DLR Aviation



According to a forecast model of the German Aerospace Center (DLR), global air traffic is expected to grow over the next 20 years from around 4 billion passengers in 2016 to 9.4 billion in 2040. The researchers have taken into account both airport capacities and fleet development. They anticipate an increased use of larger aircraft with an average of 179 passengers per flight. In 2016, the figure was 111 passengers.


"Despite the enormous growth in global air traffic and the increased use of larger aircraft, we expect that by 2040, around 255 million passengers will not be able to be served due to capacity bottlenecks," explains Dr Marc Gelhausen of the DLR Institute for Airports and Air Traffic in Cologne. "This corresponds to more than the total German passenger volume in 2018 or three percent of the global air traffic forecast for 2040," he said, also including airport capacity expansions. According to the results of the research group, the capacity bottlenecks will shift primarily to Asia. "We have come to the conclusion that a stronger combination of airport expansions and investments in larger aircraft will be necessary to solve the expected capacity deficit."



Dec 18, 2019

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